Despite temperatures soaring well above 85 degrees across the country, however there's a chill and it's coming from the American consumer. In light of same store sales numbers that will be reported later this morning, analysts are estimating ( by way of Reuters) May comps will be up 2.6 percent a mere whimper compared to March and April numbers. What gives? A lot of factors. For example, March and April's push to purchase reflected a phenom. I like to call "frugal fatigue" also known (to the economist set) as pent up demand. In addition, Easter came a week earlier compared to the previous year. Also, fears of Euro debt contagion, BP oil spill environmental disaster, stock market volatility and unemployment numbers are causing the American consumer to spend less and save more. The result- deparment store comps are expected to be up 0.9 percent and 1.1 percent while teen retailers are expected to take a nose dive by 2.6 percent. In light of uncertaintly, there are retailers I think will weather the storm:

1) Norstrom ( JWN)

Reasons why: Multi- channel increases of 13.9%, Nordstrom Rack highly successful for them opened 6 new stores in the last quarter and inventory mix is STELLAR (read: perfectly merchandised jeggings, denim and DvF dresses).

2) JCrew (JCG):

Reasons why: Posted strong first quarter results, with net income doubling to more than $44.7 million and comp store sales rising 15 percent. Raised guidance for fiscal year 2010 earnings from $2.35 to $2.45 a diluted share. Hi-fi partnerships with designers such as Belstaff, Essie nail polish, Hunter wellies, Fallon jewelry and Net-a-porter will give J.Crew fashion street cred and presence in over 170 different countries without overhead cost.

3) TJMaxx (TJX):

Reasons why: Analysts expect comp store sales to come in at 2.7% and by the looks of store traffic from my numerous visits, assortments and inventory control they are in a good position. Also, Carol Meyrowitz announced at the annual meeting on Wednesday TJX is rolling out another off-price retail concept set to launch in 3Q 2011. One thing to be wary of is their plan to invest almost all of thier $750 million of capital budget in Marmaxx and TJX Europe. Biut with a rise in first quarter profits of 58.4% to $331 million, euro currency fears may not have much of an effect on this retail behemoth.

4) Blue Nile (NILE):

Reasons why: According to the CEO in an interview on CNBC, net sales increased 18.7% to $74.1 million operating income grew 23.3 % to $3.6 million in the 4th quater. In addition, international sales grew 71.4% and there is iscounting on top of sinking diamond prices compared to gold: $NILE’s prices are 20% - 60% lower than retail because they don’t have infrastructure of the store.

Long is in Short is Out, Lacoste's Lemaire at Hermes, Expensive Handbags at the Mall, J. Crew's Profits Rise and Gucci Cruise 2011.

(nyt)A Long, Lean Backlash to the Mini

Ruth La Furla of the NYT shows you how wearing the long maxi silhouette this summer can give you a whole new look and presence. "An elongated silhouette also represents a turning away from the frivolity and calculated provocation of a thigh-high skirt “toward a more austere sensibility,” said Holli Rogers, the buying director for Net-A-Porter, which highlights and sells long tanks from Helmut Lang(a side-split jersey maxi, $330), Stella McCartney (a long silk shirtdress, $1,115) and L’Agence (a cross-back jersey maxi, $200) on its Web site. “People are accepting a more muted, covered-up feeling and moving on". “There is definitely a movement to a very lengthy look, especially among the young,” said Nevena Borissova, a partner in Curve, a progressive retailer with stores in New York, Los Angeles and Miami. Ms. Borissova favors radically stretched-out skirts and dresses that “drag on the floor, with raw edges, and worn with combat boots,” she said. And as she pointed out, these myriad calf- or ankle-grazing iterations of the milelong skirt bear no relation to “Big Love” or, for that matter, the Summer of Love."read more

(AP)Gaultier exiting Hermes, Lacoste's Lemaire enters

"Jean-Paul Gaultier is leaving high-end fashion house Hermes' womenswear line, and Lacoste designer Christophe Lemaire is taking over as artistic director, the fashion company said Thursday. Gaultier will oversee the spring-summer 2011 collection to be revealed in 2010, and Lemaire will take over for the fall-winter 2011 collection, the Paris-based firm said in a statement. The move puts an end to "seven fruitful years of creative partnership" and allows Gaultier "to concentrate on his own projects," the statement said. Much tamer and preppy than his own signature line, Gaultier's collections for Hermes consistently garnered critical acclaim. "This has been a marvelous adventure which has allowed me to learn about a new 'savoir faire,'" said Gaultier. He said he'd maintain "a privileged relationship" with Hermes, which has a 45 percent stake in his own company, Jean-Paul Gaultier." read more

(wsj)These Bags Cost a Lot!

"As shoppers begin to feel the recession lifting and tiptoe back into spending, some mall stores are seeing a small window of opportunity to woo them in a new way: big-ticket handbags. Talbots Inc. will line its shelves with a $425 python-embossed shoulder bag come fall. Teenybopper Abercrombie & Fitch Co.'s megastores now stock $300-and-up bags alongside the belts and flip-flops. And Ann Taylor Stores Corp. is offering new carryall totes for as much as $298. These pricey purses—which feel particularly pricey in stores like Ann Taylor, where the average price of an item sold last year was $38—are the latest incarnation of the accessory craze, which retailers seized on last year after clothing sales plummeted. Penny-pinching shoppers who took a pass on apparel instead snapped up jewelry as a quick way to update their wardrobes. Bags, like jewelry, don't require a trip to the fitting room, and are more likely to be an impulsive, and emotionally satisfying, purchase." read more

(wwd)J. Crew Profits Rise

"Driven by greater full-price selling and differ-entiated merchandise, J. Crew Group Inc. posted strong first-quarter results, with net income more than doubling to $44.7 million and comparable-store sales rising 15 percent. With the business continuing to be on a roll, the company raised guidance for fiscal 2010 earnings to $2.35 to $2.45 a diluted share, as compared with previous guidance of $2.20 to $2.30 and fiscal 2009 earnings per share of $1.91. Also on Thursday, J. Crew opened its first bridal store, at 769 Madison Avenue in Manhattan, and launched madewell.com. And recently, J. Crew launched a partnership with the Net-a-porter fashion Web site, giving J. Crew instant presence in 170 countries as well as some indications where the U.S. retailer might consider international expansion in the future." read more

: wwd-Gucci Cruise 2011

(wwd)Gucci Cruise 2011

We love Gucci's Cruise 2011 collection which is print heavy with overdyes, tiger stripes and a Military-Rocker feel. click to see more pictures

Same store sales preview: investors brace for a chilly spending environment

The Style File Daily Cheat Sheet