Retail hangover?

(Drawing by Seth Herzog) The retail industry was bracing itself for the inevitable and it looks like it happened. No, sillys, Terry Lundgren is not stepping down as chairman and chief executive of Macys (M)-- it seems as though the consumer is experiencing a little bit of a "retail hangover."

While same store sales seemed to beat everyone's expectations for November, December's numbers came with a thud. In the teen retailer space American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) and Aeropostale (ARO)  reported significant declines of 11 percent and 5 percent. With rumors both retailers may be getting snapped up by private equity in a buy out situation, these numbers only fuel the speculation fire. Meanwhile, Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) killed it by reporting a 15 percent comp increase due mostly in part to a disciplined inventory management. Joining the promo band wagon by getting rid of last year's full- price sales strategy didn't hurt the company either. This move allowed Abercrombie to slowly take away market share from its direct competitors. Gap (GPS) also reported an 8 percent decline in comp sales. By the looks of the overly promoted merchandise in both Gap and Old Navy stores the day after Christmas (stay tuned I am going to a post about my mall vists post festivus/holiday) and the days following, no wonder no one was in there purchasing! It looked like a clothing bomb went off in the stores and not in a good way; too many cheap sweaters, jeans and active wear spelled disaster for this retailer. Ew.

On the other hand, luxury retailers saw an incredible rebound compared to this time two years ago. Saks Inc. (SKS) and Nordstrom (JWN) reported a gain in same store sales of 11.8 percent and 8.4 percent. Although Tiffany & Co. (TIF) just got downgraded by Jeffries from a "buy" to a "hold" on Thursday, store traffic as well as sales seemed to flourish during the holidays.

"I think the luxury customer came out and actually shopped for pleasure, not replenishment," said Deb Weinswing in an interview with Womens Wear Daily. "There is a 'V-shaped' recovery in luxury, and at the moderate retailers, it's more like a bathtub shaped curve. We're heading in the right direction."

I could not agree with Deb more.

Hitha's picks: Luxury

Ralph Lauren (RL): While a lot of luxury retailers (and retailers in general) are talking about their strategy in Asia, Ralph Lauren is actually executing it. The company has strong wholesale sales across all categories as well as strong online and store comps, net income rose 15.6% total revenues up by 11.5%

Tiffany & Co. (TIF): Yes, many analysts are getting behind Jeffries in their downgrade move on this stock but I'm not so sure I want to go there yet. The company is dillgent about providing inventory mixes across all price points, the stock up more than 51% year-to-date and same store sales jumped 7% for 3Q and management raised guidance. What's more Europe and Asia look like strong growth areas for the retailer. 

Bluenile.com (NILE): Join the club if you were one of the many who asked for a watch or a piece of jewelry for the holidays and got it. The watch and jewelry category posted 15% increase for November/December. Coupled with 12% increase in e-commerce spending in the US for first 40 days of holiday (Comscore) Bluenile.com is in a good position going into 2011. According to the chief executive of the company,  Traffic to the website increased 1000% first two weeks of November. But don't think Bluenile.com is placing all of its bets on world wide web--this online retailer is  leveraging social media and smart phone Apps to reach customers.

Do you think the luxury consumer will experience the same "hangover" in 2011?

The Style File Daily Cheat Sheet

(wsj)Forever 21 Pursues Big-Store Branding

"Forever 21 Inc. is set to open a massive new store in New York's Times Square on Friday, the latest and most aggressive step in the low-priced fashion retailer's plan to expand from a clothing boutique into a department store. The privately held, Los Angeles-based company is expanding aggressively at a time when most retailers are holding back or downsizing, a move enabled in large part by the recession. Forever 21 snapped up real estate vacated by brands such as the now-bankrupt Mervyns LLC chain that were forced to downsize or close because of dwindling sales. Teens continue to swarm Forever 21's piles of inexpensive, high-fashion-imitating party dresses and tank tops. But moving into cavernous spaces, like the 90,000-square-foot spot near 46th and Broadway, is forcing the chain into new categories like menswear, children's clothing and beauty, where its hold on consumers is less certain." read more

(wwd)H&M Profits Up 24 Percent in Second Quarter

"Hennes & Mauritz AB, the world’s third-largest fashion retailer, said net profits rose 24 percent in the second quarter, but sales of its spring garments were disappointing due to unusually cold weather in most of its markets. Net profits in the three months ended May 31 amounted to 5.21 billion kronor, or $710 million, on sales of 31.6 billion kronor, or $4.3 billion. Same-store sales were down by 1 percent in the quarter. Dollar figures are converted at average exchange rates for the period. Like-for-like sales fell 4 percent in May compared with the same month last year, with the retailer reporting that unspecified calendar effects had a negative impact of 3 to 4 percentage units in the month. Including new stores, sales grew 6 percent in May and 22 percent during the period of June 1-22, it added. The Swedish high-street giant said weaker-than-expected spring sales had left it with 2 percent more stock than last year. “This could lead to a higher price reduction level in the third quarter compared to the corresponding quarter last year,” it said. Gross margin — a key measure of profitability — rose to 65.9 percent in the second quarter from 61 percent a year earlier, boosted by a weaker dollar during the purchasing period for garments sold in the quarter. “Other factors, such as greater surplus capacity at suppliers, lower transportation costs, favorable raw material prices and efficiencies in the buying process also impacted the gross margin positively in the second quarter 2010,” it said. H&M announced it would enter Croatia and Romania in 2011 with store openings in Zagreb and Bucharest in the spring. Also next year, Morocco will become a new franchise market with a store opening in Casablanca in the fall. The company said it had postponed the planned opening of a COS store in Hong Kong from fall 2010 to sometime next year."

(wwd)U.S. Retailers Push in China

"China is beckoning mainstream U.S. retailers as never before. With the country’s middle class growing fast — projected by Euromonitor to total 700 million people in 2020 — companies such as Gap Inc., American Eagle Outfitters Inc. and Bebe Stores Inc. are making their first forays into China. Others, including Guess Inc., Iconix Brand Group Inc. and Levi Strauss & Co., are enlarging their footprints. The activity comes as China has decided to let its currency appreciate gradually against a basket of currencies, including the dollar, which could — along with rising wages for Chinese workers — boost the purchasing power of its consumers and make the world’s most populous nation an even more enticing market.  The push by retail and apparel firms in China, preceded by the expansion of luxury brands, has accelerated as they seek to diversify geographically because the international economic crisis exposed the vulnerability of developed markets while China’s economy grew 8.7 percent last year."

(Independent)Madonna's Fashion Line to Hit Macy's in August

"Macy's has released the first images of popstar Madonna and her daughter Lourdes's first fashion range for the US department store, called Material Girl - due out for back-to-school season in August. Judging from the sketches, there will mainly be 1980s-inspired clothes (complete with a range of fingerless gloves), including flowery bustier dresses, star prints, and 'jeggings.' According to the press release, the new line relies on mixing unexpected items, "like a tutu dress and studded-combat boots, or an oversized boyfriend sweatshirt with a floral print mini skirt." Even though the fashion world is starting to get fed up with celebrity fashion lines, this collection is highly anticipated not just because of Madonna's star power, but also because of her successful design debut for Swedsih retailer H&M a few years back. All items, expected to cost under $40, will hit Macy's stores and its website on August 3." read more

Fashion's Night Out--Officially--Coming to L.A.!

"Cynthia Ruiz, the president of the city’s Department of Public Works—and also known as the mayor’s fashion ambassador—confirmed that the mayor’s Office of Economics & Business Policy, under the jurisdiction of Deputy Mayor Austin Buetner, has started to plan Los Angeles’ participation in the night-long shopping extravaganza. The U.S. edition of Fashion’s Night Out was created last year through a partnership between Vogue, the Council of Fashion Designers of America and N.Y.C. & Co. (New York City’s tourism site) as a global initiative to celebrate fashion and boost consumer confidence, shopping and the local economy. The F.N.O./L.A. committee will soon reveal how the city of Los Angeles is planning on translating this much-awaited night into sales, events and an opportunity for local designers to be showcased. “I love the idea of L.A.’s FNO having some of the elements that the Downtown L.A. Art Walk has been able to implement—a little something for everybody,” Commissioner Ruiz said. Last year during the inaugural launch of F.N.O. in New York, Los Angeles held a few in-store shopping events around town. Now, after the efforts of many, L.A. will officially join the lineup of Fashion’s Night Out cities, alongside New York and several other fashion capitals around the world."